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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.