A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
